Ethiopia Humanitarian Crisis

• Following five consecutive poor rainy seasons, Ethiopia is experiencing the most severe and protracted drought in recent history.
• The drought has resulted in 17.2 million people in Ethiopia requiring urgent lifesaving and life-sustaining assistance.
• More than 6.8 million livestock have died as a result of the drought since late 2021, with livelihoods severely impacted.
• The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates 20.1 million people need food support.
• Following the outbreak of armed conflict in Sudan on April 15, Ethiopia is receiving thousands of forcibly displaced people from Sudan. More than 30,000 people had fled Sudan into Ethiopia as of July 25, 2023.
• A UN update from June 14, 2023, said the number of children admitted to hospitals in Tigray for malnutrition rose by 196% between April 2022 and April 2023.
• Humanitarian agencies called for full funding of the UN’s $7 billion appeal for the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, during a pledging conference in May 2023. However, the conference received pledges of only $2.4 billion. As of Aug. 9, 2023, donors had funded only 26.2% of the 2023 HRP.
• Ethiopia’s economy grew at an average of 11% over the past decade. However, in June 2022, the International Monetary Fund said growth likely fell to 3.8% for 2021-2022 because of the war and a sharp fall in donor financing, among other factors.

In addition to climate-driven emergencies, conflict continues to be the primary driver of humanitarian needs, displacing thousands of people.

In Amhara, forces were allies of the government during the war between November 2020 and November 2022. However, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced his plan to disband the “special forces” clashes between Amhara forces and the government erupted. Amhara was put under a state of emergency by the government due to the deadly fighting.

A five-month truce ended with renewed fighting between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government toward the end of August 2022. The fighting was a blow to hopes for peace talks between the two parties. Humanitarian convoys into Tigray had been suspended, as well as UN Humanitarian Air Service flights, affecting the movement of staff and operational cash.

On Nov. 12, 2022, military leaders from the warring sides signed an accord in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital, to implement the truce signed earlier in the month. The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Nov. 15, 2022, that a convoy of trucks carrying medicine arrived in Tigray’s regional capital Mekele, the first aid delivery by the group to the region since August 2022.

Following the first in-person talks since the peace deal was signed between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Tigrayan leaders on Feb. 3, 2023, the Ethiopian government transferred funds to Tigray’s capital as it starts to restore banking services there.

According to ACLED’s situation report covering the period Sept. 9-15, 2023, “Violence continued in Amhara region last week, with armed clashes recorded between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Fano militias. In Oromia region, fighting resumed between federal forces and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane following a relative lull in the fighting.”

Human rights abuses have been documented against all parties to the conflict. A Human Rights Watch report from December 2021 said Tigrayan rebels fighting Ethiopia’s government carried out dozens of executions against civilians.

In another report released in April 2022, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said Amhara regional security forces in Ethiopia’s Western Tigray Zone committed widespread abuses against Tigrayans since November 2020. In June 2023, Human Rights Watch announced local authorities and Amhara forces in Western Tigray Zone continued an ethnic cleansing campaign against Tigrayans since the Nov. 2, 2022 truce agreement.

The truce has not ended sexual violence in Tigray, which is being used “as a tactic to harm populations, to terrorize populations,” said Dr. Ranit Mishori, Senior Medical Advisor with Physicians for Human Rights, one of the groups that co-authored a report released in August 2023. The report found that “All parties to the conflict failed to prevent and halt conflict-related sexual violence and to ensure that survivors are able to report and seek care for the devastating injuries caused by these acts.”

A report from the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia released on Sept. 18, 2023, said, “Nearly one year since the signing of an agreement to cease hostilities in Ethiopia, atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity are still being committed in the country and peace remains elusive.”

On March 20, 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after “careful review of the law and the facts”, it was determined that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Eritrean Defense Forces, TPLF forces and Amhara forces committed war crimes during the conflict in northern Ethiopia. Ethiopia called the U.S. accusations “inflammatory” and rejected its determination.

Human Rights Watch said the U.S. government’s recognition of the war crimes “should go hand-in-hand with backing for a UN body charged with carrying out an independent investigation.” The New Humanitarian reported in March 2023 that there is skepticism over Ethiopia’s commitment to a transitional justice process, although the government is eager to see direct economic support restored by the U.S. and European Union.

Eritrea, a heavily militarized one-party state often dubbed “the North Korea of Africa,” entered the conflict to fight against its long-time enemy, the TPLF. The November 2022 deal between the TPLF and Ethiopian government did not address the status of Eritrean troops. Days before that deal was signed, soldiers from neighboring Eritrea massacred more than 300 villagers.

Despite the peace deal in November 2022, Eritrean troops remained in some border areas as of early August 2023, and the Irob community is suffering as a result. The Irob speak their own language and mostly live in the northeastern part of Tigray. Activists say Eritrean troops continued to loot livestock and kidnap people in Irob.

Aid workers are not immune to violence. In June 2021, three Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) staff were killed in Tigray. According to MSF, they did not have credible answers for what happened to their staff, and Paula Gil, the President of MSF Spain, was not granted permission to visit Tigray on a visit to the country in July 2022. On April 12, 2023, Catholic Relief Services (CRS) announced that two of its staff members were killed in a CRS vehicle in the Amhara region.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, which awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize to Prime Minister Abiy after the signing of a peace deal with Eritrea that ended two decades of hostilities, issued a rare rebuke of an honoree in January 2022 saying he “has a special responsibility to end the conflict and help to create peace.”

The primary shocks that have led to protracted displacement in Ethiopia are related to ethnic and/or territorial conflict and drought. According to Ethiopia’s 2023 HRP, there were an estimated 4.6 million IDPs in the country. Through March 2023, the International Organization for Migration said there were 2.73 million IDPs in Ethiopia, including 516,300 displaced by drought.

Some displaced Tigrayans were hesitant to return to Tigray in early 2023 and recovery and the resumption of services will take time. In Tigray, an IDP Return Plan for 2023, has been agreed upon and a first “assisted return movement” from Mekelle was scheduled for end of March 2023.

Fighting in other parts of the country has also led to displacement.  The Gambela Region has, since May 2023, faced insecurity due to ethnic based violence. At least 11,700 people have been displaced as of July 31, 2023.

Ethiopia is also one of the largest refugee-hosting countries in Africa, with more than 890,000 refugees registered in the country, mainly from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan. Among the refugee population, 53% are women.

Since the outbreak of fighting in Sudan on April 15, 2023, more than 30,000 people from Sudan have fled to Ethiopia as of July 25, 2023.

Ethiopia is grappling with its worst drought since 1981. The March to May 2022 rainy season in the Horn of Africa was likely the driest on record.

According to the 2023 WFP Regional Drought Response Plan for the Horn of Africa, “Drought is predominantly affecting the Somali, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ (SNNP) regions, but the crisis has impacted the lives and livelihoods of people across the country. 11.8 million people are now in need of food assistance in drought-affected areas alone, an increase of 59 per cent compared to early 2022.”

WFP estimates that 20.1 million people currently need food support. Growing levels of food insecurity are due to persistent droughts and the desert locust infestation. Food and nutritional insecurity have soared further because of large numbers of livestock deaths, which remain the main source of nutrition and income for affected communities.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a common scale for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity and acute malnutrition. The scale includes five phases, with Phase 1 meaning there is no or minimal acute food insecurity and Phase 5 meaning famine has been reached.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network said in July 2023, “Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), persist in the aftermath of drought in the south and conflict in the north. Parts of the Somali, Oromia, and Tigray regions are of highest concern, as households in these areas have yet to recover their livelihood assets and continue to face severe difficulty earning income from typical agricultural methods.”

The war in Ukraine has implications on food security in Ethiopia, which relies on imports to meet nearly 25% of the country’s domestic demand for wheat. Prices of fuel, food, fertilizers, steel and iron have increased in international markets since the war began. These price increases may have negative repercussions on production and food prices.

Complicating the ability of some humanitarian organizations to provide food assistance is the theft of food. Following an internal investigation that revealed food theft meant for hungry people in Tigray, WFP announced in April 2023 it was suspending aid deliveries to the northern region. The U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Administrator Samantha Power said USAID-funded food assistance to the Tigray region is on pause until further notice.

The suspension of food aid by the UN and the U.S. affects 20 million people. Since food aid was first suspended in Tigray in March 2023, local officials and researchers say hunger killed at least 700 people in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region as of early August.

UNOCHA said in their Sept. 7 situation report: “The food aid pause continues to hold in Ethiopia since June 2023 and initially since April in Tigray, until measures that can ensure effective distribution are put in place. Needs around food assistance remain primary in most humanitarian situations including among internally displaced persons (IDPs), returning IDPs, and refugees.” In Tigray, partners started testing improved measures put in place to mitigate misuse through small-scale pilot distributions.