Horn of Africa Hunger Crisis

• The Horn of Africa is experiencing its worst drought in more than four decades. The March to May 2022 rainy season was the driest in the last 70 years.
• Somalia’s drought surpassed the 2010 to 2011 and 2016 to 2017 droughts in duration and severity. As of May 2023, more than 23.5 million people were enduring high levels of acute food insecurity due to drought in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. The 2011 and 2016 to 2017 droughts left 11 million and 15 million people severely food insecure, respectively.
• Data from the IPC show more than 2.8 million people in Kenya will experience acute food insecurity through January 2024 and 4.3 million in Somalia through December 2023. The same food insecurity classification system is not available in Ethiopia, and therefore the figures there are likely underestimated. About 11 million people in Ethiopia are severely food insecure due to the drought, according to the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan. From April to July 2023, an estimated 7.8 million people in South Sudan were likely to face acute food insecurity.
• A report from the Somali government and UN was released in March 2023 and said around 43,000 people may have died in Somalia in 2022 after several failed rainy seasons. The report is the first official death toll from the drought in the Horn of Africa.
• Somalia’s 2023 HNO says more than 1,000 children have died in nutrition centers in Somalia since January 2022 following related complications, and many more may have died without receiving treatment.
• More than 13.2 million livestock, which pastoralist families rely on for livelihoods, have died across the region. In Kenya alone, the economic cost of livestock loss is estimated at more than $1.5 billion.
• Trauma and grief are deeply ingrained in the Somali experience. A preliminary study by the UN, the health ministry and the national university has found that 76% of Somalis have experienced psychological disorders.
• An estimated 2.7 million children are out of school across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia due to the drought, with another 4.1 million children at risk of dropping out.
• According to the Action Against Hunger 2023 Hunger Funding Gap report, “Only 47% of hunger funding needs through the UN humanitarian system are met, leaving a hunger funding gap of 53%.” None of the analyzed countries in the Horn of Africa had UN appeals for hunger funding fulfilled in 2022.
• Humanitarian agencies called for full funding of the UN’s $7 billion appeal for the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, at a pledging conference in May 2023. However, the conference received pledges of only $2.4 billion.

A key finding from the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Ecological Threat Report, released in November 2023, was that a 25% rise in food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36%. The report also found, “Ecological threats, such as rapid population growth, water risk and food insecurity will be compounded by climate change, causing mass displacement of people and conflict.”

According to the WFP and FAO’s November 2023 to April 2024 Outlook, Ethiopia and Somalia are among eight countries identified as acute food insecurity “hotspots of very high concern.”

The outlook states, “Insecurity and conflicts are poised to exacerbate already restricted access to, and availability of, food – through displacement, the disruption of markets and livelihoods, and especially the reduction or abandonment of cultivated areas, contributing to deepening protracted food crises.”

In Somalia, conflict disrupts livelihoods, particularly in central and southern areas.

Al Shabaab has stepped up attacks in a show of resurgence since Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government launched an offensive against the group in August 2022. On Feb. 21, 2023, 10 people were killed in an attack in Somalia’s capital claimed by the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab group.

Further drawdowns of African Union Transition Mission troops may reduce the Somalia Security Forces’ ability to hold and control areas retaken by the federal government. The result will likely be increased Al-Shabaab attacks. From June 24 to July 21, 2023, ACLED recorded almost 200 political violence events and nearly 480 reported fatalities in Somalia.

After witnessing extreme events for decades, including war, famine, mass displacement and inter-communal violence, Somalis experience high levels of psychological disorders. A preliminary study by the UN, the health ministry and the national university has found that 76% of Somalis have experienced such disorders. According to Hodan Ali, Senior Policy Advisor, Health and Social Services, for the Office of the Somalia President, “invisible wounds” keep people from engaging in recovery, reconciliation, and civic engagement initiatives.

A peace deal signed by the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022 ended a two-year war that displaced millions and created dire humanitarian conditions in the Tigray region. However, recovery and the resumption of services there will take time. For more, see our Ethiopia Humanitarian Crisis profile.

Humanitarian needs in South Sudan are persistent due to food insecurity, conflict, economic downturn, displacement, climatic shocks, including floods and droughts, and disease outbreaks.

Since the start of the conflict in Sudan on April 15, 2023, thousands have fled to neighboring South Sudan, most of whom are South Sudanese returnees. As of Oct. 27, 2023, 341,967 people were recorded crossing into South Sudan from Sudan since April. Overall, half of the arrivals are female and about half are children under age 18.

The interconnection between climate, conflict and food security is more prominent in fragile or developing contexts. Logistical and security challenges often impede humanitarians’ access to affected people. State and non-state actors often obstruct access in the region. Some experts have called for greater emphasis on the root causes of conflicts in the continent and the need for greater international cooperation and support for “African solutions to African problems.”

The drought has led to mass displacement across the Horn of Africa. The floods have also contributed to displacement. Somalia is recovering from the 2023 rainy season, where flooding affected the districts of Jowhar, Balcad and the South West state, displacing 14,400 people and destroying crops.

According to the regional 2023 Migrant Response Plan (MRP) for the Horn of Africa and Yemen, “Migration in the Horn of Africa continues to be triggered by persistent insecurity and conflict, environmental degradation, harsh climatic conditions, public health emergencies, socioeconomic drivers, and traditional seasonal factors.”

IOM calls the Horn of Africa and Yemen “one of the busiest and riskiest migration corridors in the world” due to hundreds of thousands of people traveling in an irregular manner, often relying on smugglers to facilitate movement along the Eastern Route. Through August 2023, IOM said although migration continues to be economically driven, more than half of migrants departing from the Somali region of Ethiopia were traveling due to disasters.

In mid-February 2023, the head of IOM expressed concern about the numbers of women and children migrating from the Horn of Africa to Gulf countries through Yemen. He said climate change is a primary driver of people risking dangerous journeys. Most of those displaced in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are women and children.

The drought is expected to keep depleting the resources of host communities, limiting their ability to support migrants along the Eastern Route and driving more people to migrate irregularly. According to the MRP, in 2023, more than 1.4 million people will need humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian partners will target 1,045,832 people, including 403,295 migrants and 642,537 host community members.

According to Save the Children, the drought in Somalia has led to the biggest movement of refugees into Kenya in over a decade. More than 20,000 Somalis, primarily women and children, arrived in 2022, as of early November. These displacement figures mean there is the risk of inter-communal conflict and increased pressure on already limited basic services. The population of Kenya’s Dadaab camp has grown to over 320,000 refugees, putting pressure on already overstretched resources. The severity of the drought is pushing more people to flee their homes in search of safety and provisions.

The Horn of Africa is experiencing its worst drought in more than four decades. The March to May 2022 rainy season was the driest in the last 70 years. After five consecutive below-average rainy seasons, the humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa is expanding and deepening.

A study published in April 2023 by a team of scientists from Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, the U.S., the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom found that, “as a result of human-induced climate change, the combination of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration as unusual as the recent conditions would not have led to drought at all in a 1.2°C cooler world.”

Across the region, drought and other weather extremes, economic shocks and conflict combine to produce devastating consequences for millions. The 2023 Global Report on Food Crises said, “The economic resilience of poor countries has dramatically decreased, and they now face extended recovery periods and less ability to cope with future shocks.”

The April to June 2022 gu rainfall season was among the top three driest gu seasons on record across most of Somalia. As seen in the map below, many parts of Somalia experienced rainfall accumulation significantly below historical averages in 2022.

Forecasts had called for a sixth below-average gu/genna rainy season in southern and southeastern Ethiopia, but a change in conditions led to above-average rainfall. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, the March 2023 rainfall allowed for a modest recovery of pasture and water points. However, the heavy rainfall landing on dry soil caused flooding in some of the worst drought-affected areas, damaging infrastructure and agricultural land and driving displacement.

According to Save the Children, flash flooding in March and April 2023 in Ethiopia and Somalia killed at least 50 people, displaced more than 30,000 families, and destroyed at least 10,000 livestock and more than 51,000 acres (21,000 hectares) of crops across both countries. Ongoing rains in May 2023 severely affected several districts in Somalia’s Jubaland State. The flash floods affected at least 460,470 people.

The forecast for the October to December 2023 Deyr rainy season in Somalia is a “once-in-a hundred-years flood event related to the El Niño weather phenomenon, posing a threat especially to communities along the Shabelle and Juba rivers.” Heavy rainfall in early October 2023 affected at least 122,000 people in the Bay region of southwestern Somalia.

The prolonged drought has damaged soil, making it challenging to absorb the rain to grow crops. Caroline Wainwright, a climate scientist at Cardiff University in the United Kingdom, said the flooding does not simply undo three years of drought. In advance of the anticipated El Niño-induced flooding, $15 million was released from the Somalia Humanitarian Fund in early October 2023 to support early action and response.

Early warning systems designed to warn against various hazards is one need that would help with limiting the impacts of climate-fueled disasters in the long run. According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, “Countries with substantial to comprehensive early warning system coverage have one-eighth the disaster mortality of those with limited or no coverage. Sadly, only 40% of Africa is covered by such systems, and even those are compromised by quality issues.”

Data from the IPC show more than 2.8 million people in Kenya will experience acute food insecurity through January 2024 and 4.3 million in Somalia through December 2023. The same food insecurity classification system is not available in Ethiopia, and therefore the figures there are likely underestimated.

About 11 million people in Ethiopia are severely food insecure due to the drought, according to the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan. From April to July 2023, an estimated 7.8 million people in South Sudan were likely to face acute food insecurity.

Save the Children said in September 2023, “About two in five children under the age of five in Somalia are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition by July 2024, despite initial hopes that rainfall would bring more relief.”

According to FEWS NET’s East Africa Key Message Update in June 2023, “East Africa continues to face a severe humanitarian emergency characterized by widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, the persistence of Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes in parts of Ethiopia, and a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of Somalia and South Sudan. This is driven by the compounding impacts of the historic 2020-2023 drought in the Horn, conflict, four consecutive years of flooding in South Sudan, and sustained poor macroeconomic conditions.”

According to WHO, the food crisis in the region is also a health crisis. In addition to severe malnutrition, a life-threatening condition, there is an increased risk of water-borne diseases due to limited safe drinking water, outbreaks of infectious diseases and decreased access to health services. Around 11.5 million children under five are likely to be acutely malnourished in 2023 with 2.9 million of them requiring treatment for severe acute malnutrition.

In Ethiopia and Somalia, agriculture employs 67% and 80% of people, respectively, and large portions of the region’s farmland are rain-fed. The drought and other extreme weather events continue to affect people’s livelihoods which in turn impact the food security situation.

More than 13.2 million livestock, which pastoralist families rely on for livelihoods, have already died across the region. In Kenya alone, the economic cost of livestock loss is estimated at more than $1.5 billion. Previous experience shows that it takes about five years for a pastoralist family to rebuild their herd after a drought. The region has felt the effects of the war in Ukraine, with supply shortages and rising fuel costs contributing to price increases.

Together, Ukraine and Russia export 28% of the world’s wheat and 15% of its corn. In 2023, crop production in Ukraine may decline by 35% to 45% in the next harvesting season, which started in July 2022. The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine varies by country but may be devastating for some, including Somalia.

Somalia, for example, relies on Russia and Ukraine for more than 90% of its wheat supplies. The World Bank said in 2022 that Somalia is one of seven countries globally that face the risk of overlapping food and debt crises, which may expand the impacts there.

Families often face desperate choices as the crisis grows, including marrying off their young girls. Marriage reduces the number of people requiring food and may help families obtain a dowry to support the remainder of the family.

According to a June 2022 UNICEF press release, “Girls as young as 12 are being forced into child marriage … In the regions of Ethiopia worst affected by the drought, child marriage has on average more than doubled in the space of one year.” UNICEF says this includes marriage to men over 60 years old. This makes girls more vulnerable to intimate partner violence, including sexual assault, and ongoing poverty.

Additionally, the rates of female genital mutilation have increased dramatically across the Horn of Africa. It increased as much as 27% in one region in Ethiopia.

According to the WFP, “1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women in drought-affected areas need nutritional support to ensure the health of themselves and their children.”

The risk of children dropping out of school has increased significantly in recent months. Across the Horn of Africa, 15 million children are out of school, and another 3.3 million are at risk of dropping out due to the drought.

Due to the drought, women and girls are also walking further to obtain essential resources, including water, making them more vulnerable to sexual violence.

According to Save the Children, the drought in Somalia has led to the biggest movement of refugees into Kenya in over a decade. More than 20,000 Somalis, mostly women and children, arrived in 2022 so far.

The East and Horn of Africa region hosts a higher number of female than male migrants, which is a unique characteristic compared to other parts of the continent and to global trends, according to IOM. Women and girls tend to represent the largest share of the refugee population, while men and boys tend to dominate labor migration dynamics.